Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, two referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on June 14, 2026 : - Issue 1: No to ten million Switzerland - Issue 2: Referendum on the Civilian Service Act This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the nationwide popular vote held in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| No to ten million Switzerland | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| Civilian Service Act | 77% YES | 23% NO |
Swiss voters will decide on two distinct matters on 14 June 2026: a popular initiative opposing population growth to ten million, and a referendum on reforms to the Civilian Service Act. Both require approval by a double majority—a nationwide popular vote plurality and support from a majority of cantons—to pass. The market currently prices passage at 38% across both measures, reflecting uncertainty about whether either initiative will clear these demanding thresholds.
Swiss referenda on immigration and population policy have historically faced mixed outcomes, though initiatives framing growth as problematic have gained traction in recent years. The 2014 mass immigration initiative passed with 50.3% support, whilst subsequent population-related proposals have struggled. The Civilian Service Act reform represents a different category: technical governance questions typically see higher passage rates when they reach the ballot, though cantonal fragmentation remains unpredictable. Comparable recent referenda suggest initiatives requiring cantonal majorities face structural headwinds, which likely explains the current sub-50% pricing.
Traders should monitor campaign momentum through spring 2026, particularly polling data on the population initiative, which tends to correlate with anti-immigration sentiment across Europe. Official campaign spending disclosures and cantonal position statements will signal regional support distribution. Any major economic announcements affecting Swiss labour migration or population projections could shift sentiment. The Civilian Service Act reform's passage likelihood may depend partly on military and labour union positioning, which typically crystallises in the months immediately preceding the vote.
Switzerland's Next Topmodel season 3 is the third season of Switzerland's Next Topmodel. It aired on ProSieben Schweiz from September 2021. Like last season, the show introduces male models into the competition. The show is hosted by Topmodel Manuela Frey. The international destination is Naxos, Greece.
Switzerland's Next Topmodel season 1 is the first season of Switzerland's Next Topmodel. It aired on ProSieben Schweiz from October to November 2018. For the first season, the show introduced a division of also male models have a change of winning the competition. The show was hosted by Topmodel Manuela Frey. The international destination was Milan.
Switzerland's Next Topmodel season 2 is the second season of Switzerland's Next Topmodel. It aired on ProSieben Schweiz from October to November 2019. Like last season, the show introduced a division of also male models have a change of winning the competition. The show was hosted by Topmodel Manuela Frey. The international destination was Berlin.
Switzerland's Next Topmodel is a Swiss reality television series and the second local adaptation based on Tyra Banks' America's Next Top Model after Supermodel which aired in 2007 and 2008 on the now defunct network 3+. The show sees a number of aspiring models compete against each other in a variety of competitions to determine who will win the title of Swi
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Switzerland’s June Referendum: What will pass?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$95K in lifetime turnover and $31K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for referendum contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $886 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: