Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <0.90 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 0.90-1.00 | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| 1.00-1.10 | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| 1.10-1.20 | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| 1.20-1.30 | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| 1.30-1.40 | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| 1.40-1.50 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| 1.50-1.60 | 25% YES | 76% NO |
This market resolves based on XRP's closing price at noon ET on 14 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle from Binance's XRP/USDT pair. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extreme confidence in a specific price range or minimal trading activity establishing a floor. With nearly eighteen months until settlement, the current order book positioning likely represents early-stage price discovery rather than informed conviction about mid-2026 valuations.
Historical precedent suggests XRP's intraday volatility and susceptibility to regulatory announcements create wide confidence intervals for distant settlement dates. The SEC's ongoing litigation with Ripple, which has produced mixed rulings since 2023, remains the primary structural uncertainty affecting XRP's price trajectory. Any resolution of the regulatory case—whether favourable or adverse—could materially shift market expectations, though the timing remains uncertain.
Traders monitoring this market should track developments from the SEC appeal process and any statements from Ripple regarding institutional adoption or product launches. Macroeconomic shifts affecting cryptocurrency valuations broadly, particularly movements in Bitcoin and Ethereum, typically correlate with XRP price action. The settlement window's specificity—noon ET on a particular date—introduces execution risk; illiquidity during that precise candle could produce unexpected resolution outcomes independent of broader market conditions.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "XRP price on May 14?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$518 in lifetime turnover and $533 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for recurring contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $471 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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