Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market tracks whether Bitcoin's price according to Chainlink's BTC/USD data feed will be higher or unchanged at 4:50AM ET on 8 May 2026 compared to 4:45AM ET that same morning. The five-minute window captures intraday volatility during Asian trading hours, when Bitcoin typically experiences lower volumes and wider spreads than US or European sessions. Settlement relies exclusively on Chainlink's oracle data rather than spot exchange prices, which can diverge slightly due to aggregation methodology and latency differences.
The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the statistical reality that five-minute Bitcoin price movements show marginal upside bias in historical data. Over extended periods, Bitcoin closes higher than it opens roughly 51–52% of the time across similar timeframes, though this varies by session and market regime. The extreme probability reading suggests either minimal liquidity depth in the order book at current prices, or traders recognising that even small positive drift expectations compound across repeated five-minute intervals.
Traders should monitor overnight volatility in Asian markets on 7–8 May, particularly any macroeconomic data releases from Japan or China that could trigger liquidations or algorithmic rebalancing. Bitcoin's behaviour during low-liquidity Asian hours can be sensitive to spot exchange order flow imbalances. The Chainlink feed's specific composition—typically weighted towards major exchanges—means localised price movements on smaller venues will not affect settlement. Execution timing and slippage on Polymarket itself will be the primary friction point for positions entered well ahead of the resolution window.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$75K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for recurring contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $75K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: