Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Epic Games' private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑$25B | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| ↑$20B | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| ↑$17.5B | 58% YES | 42% NO |
| ↓$10B | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| ↑$30B | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| ↑$13.5B | 65% YES | 36% NO |
| ↑$14B | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| ↓$11.5B | 65% YES | 36% NO |
Epic Games' private valuation will need to reach a specified threshold by year-end 2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. The company's valuation is tracked via Nasdaq Private Market's daily NPM Price, which serves as the settlement mechanism. Current order book pricing implies a 21% probability of this valuation target being achieved within the window.
Epic's valuation trajectory has been volatile since its $31.5 billion peak in 2021. The company raised $2 billion at a $32 billion valuation in September 2024, suggesting modest recovery from pandemic-era highs, though still below previous marks. Comparable private gaming companies like Roblox (public since 2021) and Stripe (valued at $95 billion in 2023) demonstrate how tech valuations can fluctuate sharply based on revenue growth, profitability timelines, and market sentiment. The 21% probability reflects scepticism about substantial near-term appreciation, particularly given Epic's ongoing losses from its Fortnite operations and the Epic Games Store.
Key catalysts include potential announcements around profitability roadmaps, major licensing deals, or strategic partnerships that could trigger secondary market repricing. The company's performance in live-service gaming revenue and any material shifts in its metaverse strategy will influence investor appetite. Additionally, broader venture capital sentiment and public market valuations for comparable gaming firms will affect private market pricing. Traders should monitor earnings-adjacent disclosures and any secondary market transactions reported through NPM, as these directly influence the daily price feed used for settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will Epic Games' valuation hit 2027 by December 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for privates contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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