Trade: Tabi FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Tabi's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Tabi (https://x.com/Tabichain) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $13K
- Total Volume
- $35K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $3K
Market outcomes
| $500M | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| $2B | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| $1B | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| $3B | 2% YES | 98% NO |
Market context
Tabi, a blockchain project with a governance token, is preparing to launch public trading of its token. This market will resolve based on whether the fully diluted valuation (total token supply multiplied by price) exceeds a specified threshold within 24 hours of the token becoming actively tradeable. The settlement window closes on 1 January 2027, allowing roughly two years for the launch event to occur and resolve.
Historical precedent suggests governance token launches typically experience significant price volatility in their first day, with FDV often spiking above initial expectations due to limited initial liquidity and concentrated buying interest. Recent token launches including Solana ecosystem projects have seen opening FDVs ranging from $500 million to several billion depending on pre-launch hype and allocation structure. The current 29% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects moderate scepticism about Tabi reaching the unspecified threshold, suggesting traders are pricing in either a modest launch valuation or uncertainty around the exact FDV target embedded in the market title.
Key catalysts include Tabi's official launch announcement and timeline, which will determine the resolution date. Traders should monitor the project's pre-launch tokenomics disclosure, including total supply figures and initial allocation distribution, as these directly affect FDV calculations. The liquidity conditions at launch—particularly whether trading begins on major exchanges or smaller platforms—will significantly influence opening price discovery. Any material announcements regarding partnerships, technical milestones, or regulatory developments could shift market expectations before the launch window arrives.
Wikipedia Context
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Galaktion TabidzeGalaktion Tabidze, simply referred to as Galaktioni, , was a Georgian poet of the twentieth century whose writings profoundly influenced all subsequent generations of Georgian poets. He survived Joseph Stalin's Great Purge of the 1930s, which claimed the lives of many of his fellow writers, friends and relatives, but came under heavy pressure from the Soviet
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Titsian TabidzeTitsian Tabidze, was a Georgian poet and one of the leaders of the Georgian symbolist movement. He fell victim to Joseph Stalin's Great Purge, was arrested and executed on trumped-up charges of treason. Tabidze was a close friend of the well-known Russian writer Boris Pasternak, who translated his poetry into Russian.
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Jemal TabidzeJemal "Jimmy" Tabidze is a Georgian professional footballer who plays as centre-back for Russian Premier League club Dynamo Makhachkala and the Georgia national team.
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Tabidachi no Hi ni
"Tabidachi no Hi ni" is a Japanese song written by Noboru Kojima. First performed in 1991, it became one of the most commonly used graduation songs in Japan.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Tabi FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$35K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for pre market contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Tabi FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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