Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on June 2, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on June 2, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 2? | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Palantir Technologies' closing price on 2 June 2026 will be compared against the prior trading day's close to determine whether the stock moved upward or downward. The current order book on Polymarket prices an up move at 17% probability, implying a 83% lean toward a down day or flat close. This pricing reflects the market's baseline expectation that single-day positive moves require specific catalysts rather than occurring by chance.
Single-day directional moves in large-cap software and data analytics stocks typically cluster around earnings announcements, analyst upgrades or downgrades, and macroeconomic data releases. Palantir's historical volatility and institutional ownership mean that intraday momentum often depends on broader market sentiment in technology equities rather than company-specific news. Without a scheduled earnings date or major product announcement in early June 2026, the stock's movement would likely track sector-wide dynamics and any Federal Reserve communications or economic indicators released that week.
Traders monitoring this market should watch for any Palantir guidance updates, contract wins, or executive commentary in the weeks prior to settlement. Broader technology sector performance—particularly how peers in data analytics and defence contracting trade—will substantially influence PLTR's directional bias. The 17% probability suggests the market assigns meaningful weight to downward or sideways price action, consistent with the absence of near-term catalysts and typical mean-reversion patterns in single-day equity moves.
Palantir Technologies Inc. is an American publicly traded company that develops data integration and analytics software. Palantir is headquartered in Miami, Florida, and was founded in 2003 by Peter Thiel, Stephen Cohen, Joe Lonsdale, Alex Karp, and Nathan Gettings.
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This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.PLTR%2FUSD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 2?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $12K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pltr contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 1%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.PLTR%2FUSD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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