Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Republican Party | 92% YES | 8% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
| Democratic Party | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
Georgia's 14th congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The current order book on Polymarket prices Republican victory at 93%, reflecting confidence in the party's hold on a seat it has controlled since 2012. The district, which spans parts of northwest Georgia including Marietta, has trended Republican in recent cycles, though suburban areas within it have shown volatility in House races during the 2018–2022 period.
Historical performance offers context for interpreting this probability. Georgia's 14th has voted Republican in every House election since 2012, including 2022 when Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene won with 66% of the vote. However, suburban districts across Georgia have demonstrated sensitivity to national political conditions—the state flipped in the 2020 presidential race and has produced competitive Senate contests. The 93% implied probability reflects both the district's recent Republican lean and uncertainty inherent in a race still two years distant, where candidate recruitment, national dynamics, and potential redistricting remain unresolved.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements from both parties, expected in 2025 and early 2026, alongside any shifts in Georgia's political composition following the 2024 elections. National House approval ratings and economic conditions heading into 2026 will shape the broader midterm environment. Redistricting outcomes, though unlikely to substantially alter the district's boundaries given Republican control of the state legislature, represent a secondary variable affecting long-term positioning.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "GA-14 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for nov 4 elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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