Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <140 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 140–169 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 170–199 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 200–229 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 230–259 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 260–289 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 290–319 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 320–350 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The market concerns the total number of tornadoes recorded across the United States during April, with settlement determined by the National Centers for Environmental Information's official monthly count. The NCEI publishes a comprehensive time series of verified tornado events, and only those appearing in the final dataset released for April 2026 will count toward resolution. The data release is scheduled for 8 May 2026, providing a firm settlement date of 10 May 2026.
April typically ranks among the most active months for tornado activity in the United States, particularly across the Great Plains and Southeast. Historical records show April tornado counts ranging from single digits in quiet years to over 200 in exceptionally active periods. The 30-year average for April tornadoes sits around 80–100 events, making the current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book a notable outlier that reflects either extreme confidence in an unusually quiet April or minimal liquidity in the market. Traders should reference the NOAA Storm Data archive to assess seasonal patterns and recent multi-year trends in spring tornado frequency.
The primary catalyst for price movement will be real-time severe weather activity throughout April 2026, particularly significant tornado outbreaks reported by the Storm Prediction Center. Traders monitoring atmospheric conditions—including upper-level wind shear, instability indices, and jet stream positioning—can anticipate periods of heightened tornado risk. The NCEI's final count may differ slightly from preliminary reports due to verification procedures, so the exact settlement figure remains uncertain until the official release. Market participants should track spring weather forecasts and any notable severe weather events as they develop.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many Tornadoes in the US in April?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$127K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for natural disasters contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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