Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on May 4, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on May 4, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 4? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Microsoft's share price on 4 May 2026 will be compared against the prior trading day's close to determine whether the stock finished higher or lower. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability for an up move, suggesting traders are pricing in either a down day or treating the binary as heavily skewed toward decline. This extreme positioning is notable given that single-day directional moves in large-cap technology stocks typically carry meaningful uncertainty; the crowd's certainty here warrants scrutiny of what information is driving such consensus.
Historical precedent shows that daily moves in MSFT are distributed across both directions, with the stock closing higher roughly 51–52% of trading days over extended periods. A 0% probability for an up move deviates sharply from this baseline and suggests either specific negative catalysts expected around that date, or illiquidity in the order book creating a pricing anomaly. Comparable single-day direction markets on mega-cap stocks rarely settle at such extremes unless material corporate actions or earnings announcements are scheduled.
Traders should monitor Microsoft's earnings calendar, macroeconomic data releases, and sector-wide technology volatility in the weeks preceding 4 May 2026. Quarterly results, guidance revisions, or major cloud-computing contract announcements could shift expectations materially. Additionally, broader market conditions—Federal Reserve policy signals, interest rate expectations, and competitive pressures in AI infrastructure—will influence how the stock opens and closes on that specific day. The current zero probability may reflect incomplete information or represent an opportunity for contrarian positioning.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 4?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$47K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for msft contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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