Resolution criteria on PolyGram: this is a market on Monad airdrop
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| June 30 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| September 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| December 31 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| October 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| November 30 | — | |
| November 30 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| November 15 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| December 15 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Monad, a high-performance Ethereum-compatible blockchain, has not yet announced an airdrop distribution to its community or users. The market currently trades at 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, suggesting traders assess an airdrop as virtually certain to occur before the 30 June 2026 settlement deadline. This pricing reflects confidence that the project will eventually distribute tokens to early adopters, developers, or network participants—a common practice among layer-1 and layer-2 blockchain projects seeking to decentralise governance and reward early engagement.
Historical precedent shapes expectations here. Arbitrum, Optimism, and Starknet all conducted major airdrops to users and developers within 18–24 months of mainnet launch, typically distributing 10–25% of total token supply. Monad mainnet launched in late 2024, placing it within the typical window for such distributions. The 100% probability reflects this pattern rather than any formal announcement; traders are pricing in the base rate of successful blockchain projects conducting airdrops as part of their tokenomics strategy.
Catalysts to monitor include official governance proposals from Monad Labs, token supply disclosures, or announcements regarding community incentive programmes. Market sentiment could shift sharply on news of delayed tokenomics, a pivot away from community distribution, or competing claims about eligibility criteria. The long settlement window to mid-2026 provides ample time for material developments, though the current order book shows no meaningful price discovery—any shift in conviction would likely emerge through new on-chain or official communications rather than market movement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Monad airdrop by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$24.0M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for monad contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 11 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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