Trade: Meta (META) Up or Down on May 7?

100% YES 0% NO

Opened 6 May 2026 · Settles 7 May 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on May 7, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on May 7, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: —
Total Volume: $14K
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $6K

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Market outcomes

Meta (META) Up or Down on May 7?

100% YES

0% NO

Market context

Meta's share price movement on 7 May 2026 will be determined by the closing price relative to the prior trading day's close. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing this binary outcome at 100% implied probability for an up move, reflecting either extreme conviction among traders or a technical imbalance in liquidity. Single-day directional bets on large-cap equities typically settle based on intraday volatility, earnings surprises, or macroeconomic shifts occurring within the 24-hour window.

Historical precedent suggests that single-day price movements for Meta, a stock with average daily volatility around 2–3%, rarely exhibit directional certainty. Over the past three years, Meta has closed higher than the prior day roughly 51–52% of the time, consistent with random walk behaviour in efficient markets. The 100% probability on the order book indicates either a significant known catalyst scheduled for that specific date or a liquidity constraint limiting the ability to express contrarian positions.

Traders should monitor Meta's earnings calendar, product announcements, and regulatory developments in the weeks preceding 7 May. Recent quarterly results and guidance revisions have been primary drivers of single-day moves exceeding 3–4%. Additionally, broader market conditions—Federal Reserve policy signals, technology sector rotation, or macroeconomic data releases—can override company-specific factors. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on the resolution date, allowing for post-market price discovery to be excluded from the final close.

Wikipedia Context

Metaphysics
Metaphysics is the branch of philosophy that examines the basic structure of reality. It is traditionally seen as the study of mind-independent features of the world, but some theorists view it as an inquiry into the conceptual framework of human understanding. Some philosophers, including Aristotle, designate metaphysics as the first philosophy to suggest t
Metá Metá
Metá Metá is a Brazilian jazz band from São Paulo created in 2008 and formed by the trio Juçara Marçal (vocals), Kiko Dinucci (guitar) and Thiago França (saxophone).
Metadata
Metadata is data that defines and describes the characteristics of other data. It often helps to describe, explain, locate, or otherwise make data easier to retrieve, use, or manage. For example, the title, author, and publication date of a book are metadata about the book. But, while a data asset is finite, its metadata is infinite.
Metamaterial
A metamaterial is an engineered material whose properties arise not from the chemical composition of its base substances, but from their deliberately designed internal structure. These properties are often rare or absent in naturally occurring materials. Metamaterials are typically fashioned from multiple materials, such as metals and plastics, and arranged

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.META%2FUSD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Meta (META) Up or Down on May 7?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 100% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $100 if YES resolves true — a 0% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$14K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for meta contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "Meta (META) Up or Down on May 7?"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.META%2FUSD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Meta (META) Up or Down on May 7?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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