Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur: 1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election. 2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027? | 10% YES | 91% NO |
Zohran Mamdani, a New York State assemblyman representing parts of Queens, has proposed a 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1 million annually. For this market to resolve affirmatively, Mamdani must first win the 2025 NYC mayoral election, then successfully enact a millionaire tax of at least 2% before the end of 2026. The current 10% implied probability on Polymarket reflects the substantial hurdles both conditions present, with traders pricing in the difficulty of a state legislator winning the mayoralty against likely establishment opposition and the compressed timeline for tax implementation.
Historical precedent suggests millionaire taxes face significant implementation challenges in New York. Connecticut and Maryland both attempted similar taxes in recent years; Connecticut's 2012 millionaire tax was eventually repealed after wealthy residents relocated, whilst Maryland's version proved difficult to sustain. New York City itself has struggled to pass major tax increases on high earners, with previous proposals stalling amid concerns about capital flight and federal tax implications. The current order book pricing reflects these cautionary examples.
Key catalysts for traders include Mamdani's 2025 mayoral campaign trajectory—polling data and fundraising figures will signal viability—and any early statements from leading mayoral candidates on millionaire taxation. The New York State legislature's appetite for local tax authority changes will also matter; state approval may be required depending on how the tax is structured. Recent reporting on NYC's fiscal pressures could shift sentiment toward revenue-raising measures, though the specific 2% millionaire tax remains a niche proposal within broader mayoral platforms.
Hassan Madani is a male freestyle wrestler from Egypt.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$58K in lifetime turnover and $15K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for mamdani contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $20 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 10%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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