Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Hyperliquid's HYPE token will trade during a 15-minute window on 11 May between 9:45 and 10:00 AM Eastern Time. The market resolves based on Chainlink's HYPE/USD data feed, which aggregates pricing across multiple sources rather than relying on a single exchange. The current 50-50 split on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about directional movement during this compressed timeframe, with neither buyers nor sellers commanding conviction ahead of the settlement window.
Intraday 15-minute price movements in crypto assets typically exhibit low predictability, particularly for mid-cap tokens like HYPE. Historical analysis of comparable micro-timeframe markets shows that without scheduled catalysts or major news events, such windows tend to resolve near even odds. The token's volatility profile and liquidity depth will determine whether the market experiences meaningful price discovery or remains range-bound during the interval. Chainlink's data feed methodology—aggregating across multiple venues—may smooth out isolated exchange-level volatility that would otherwise create directional bias.
No major announcements from Hyperliquid are currently scheduled for the morning of 11 May. Traders should monitor broader crypto market movements and Bitcoin's behaviour during the window, as HYPE typically correlates with wider market sentiment. Macroeconomic data releases or Federal Reserve communications earlier that morning could establish momentum, though the 15-minute resolution window provides limited time for sustained directional pressure to develop. The current even probability reflects the absence of identifiable catalysts that would favour either direction.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$8 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for hype contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $8 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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