Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 45th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Chi Charlie Nguyen | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| Derek Tran | 95% YES | 6% NO |
| Amy Phan West | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| Chuong Vo | 63% YES | 38% NO |
| Mark Leonard | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Tom Vo | 50% YES | 51% NO |
California's 45th congressional district will hold its primary election on 2 June 2026, with the winner advancing to the general election in the midterm cycle. The current order book on Polymarket prices the listed candidate at 18% implied probability, reflecting substantial uncertainty about their path through the primary field. This probability formation reflects the market's assessment of both the candidate's viability and the broader competitive dynamics in the district.
California's primary system, which advances the top two finishers regardless of party affiliation, creates distinct dynamics compared to traditional closed primaries. Historical precedent suggests that well-funded incumbents or candidates with strong party backing typically clear primary hurdles with relative ease, whilst open-seat races or challenges to sitting members generate wider probability distributions. The 18% pricing suggests the market views this candidate as a meaningful contender but not a frontrunner, positioning them amongst several viable candidates rather than as the clear favourite.
Key catalysts for probability movement include formal candidate announcements, campaign finance disclosures due throughout 2025, and any shifts in district demographics or partisan lean. The California Citizens Redistricting Commission's 2021 maps established the current district boundaries, and any subsequent legal challenges or demographic shifts could alter the competitive landscape. Traders should monitor filing deadlines and early polling data as the primary approaches, alongside any major endorsements or funding announcements that might signal momentum shifts within the candidate field.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "CA-45 Primary Winners" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for house primary contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $40 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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