Trade: Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Silver futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $67K
- Total Volume
- $250K
- 24h Volume
- $3K
- Open Interest
- $38K
Market outcomes
| $140 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| $120 | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| $110 | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| $100 | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| $95 | 35% YES | 66% NO |
| $90 | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| $85 | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| $80 | 58% YES | 42% NO |
Market context
Silver futures will settle at the CME on the final trading day of June 2026, with the Active Month contract's official settlement price determining the outcome. The market currently prices a 2% probability that this settlement price will exceed a specified threshold, reflecting substantial scepticism about upside movement over the next eighteen months. Polymarket's order book is pricing this outcome at the extreme low end of the probability distribution, suggesting either tight consensus around bearish positioning or limited liquidity at higher price levels.
Historical precedent shows silver exhibits pronounced cyclicality tied to industrial demand, currency movements, and real rates. Over the past decade, silver has traded between roughly $14 and $30 per ounce, with multi-month rallies typically driven by either US dollar weakness or equity market risk-off episodes. The 2% implied probability suggests traders expect either continued dollar strength, subdued industrial demand, or a structural shift in the macroeconomic backdrop that keeps precious metals under pressure through mid-2026.
Key catalysts include Federal Reserve policy decisions and inflation data releases, which directly influence real interest rates and dollar positioning—the primary drivers of silver valuations. Geopolitical developments affecting industrial production, particularly in semiconductors and renewable energy sectors, carry secondary importance. Recent commodity market volatility has been modest, with silver trading within established ranges; any significant deviation would likely shift the probability materially. Traders should monitor US Treasury yield curves and dollar index futures as leading indicators for directional pressure on the precious metals complex.
Wikipedia Context
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Zygiella x-notataZygiella x-notata, sometimes known as the missing sector orb weaver or the silver-sided sector spider, is a spider species in the family Araneidae. They are solitary spiders, residing in daily spun orb webs. Z. x-notata is a member of the genus Zygiella, the orb-weaving spiders. The adult female is easily recognized by the characteristic leaf-like mark on he
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Cristiceps argyropleura
Cristiceps argyropleura, the silver-sided weedfish, is a species of clinid found around southern Australia at depths from 20 to 60 metres where it is predominantly found in kelp beds. This species can reach a length of 18 centimetres (7.1 in) TL.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.settlements.html. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$250K in lifetime turnover and $67K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for hide from new contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.settlements.html. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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