Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, AMC Entertainment is estimated to release earnings on May 6, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for AMC Entertainment’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-0.34 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if AMC Entertainment reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $-0.34 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If AMC Entertainment releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will AMC Entertainment (AMC) beat quarterly earnings? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
AMC Entertainment is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on 6 May, with the Street consensus forecasting non-GAAP earnings per share of −$0.34. The market will resolve affirmatively only if the company reports non-GAAP EPS exceeding this threshold. Currently, Polymarket's order book reflects zero probability of a beat, suggesting traders are pricing in either a miss or the expectation that AMC will report in line with or below consensus estimates.
AMC has faced sustained headwinds since 2021, with the company reporting consecutive quarters of negative earnings throughout 2024 and early 2025. The consensus estimate itself sits deeply negative, reflecting analyst expectations of continued operational losses. Historical precedent suggests that when consensus is already negative, beats become mechanically easier—the bar is lower—yet the 0% implied probability indicates the market is discounting even modest upside surprises. This positioning is unusually extreme relative to typical earnings volatility across the broader market.
Key variables for traders include box office performance in the months preceding the earnings release, any material changes to AMC's capital structure or debt refinancing announcements, and broader theatrical exhibition trends. Recent industry data on cinema attendance and per-patron spending will provide directional signals. The settlement window closes at 13:00 UTC on 6 May, coinciding with typical US market hours when earnings are typically released. Any guidance revisions or one-time charges disclosed in the earnings document could affect non-GAAP calculations and thus resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://seekingalpha.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will AMC Entertainment (AMC) beat quarterly earnings?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for hide from new contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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