Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Venezuela become 51st state? | 5% YES | 95% NO |
The market concerns formal annexation of Venezuelan territory into the United States as the 51st state, with settlement contingent on an official agreement announced between January and December 2026. The current 5% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial scepticism about this outcome occurring within the specified timeframe, despite recent geopolitical tensions in the region.
Historical precedent for territorial expansion by the US is limited to the 19th century, with the last state admission (Hawaii, 1959) involving an already-integrated territory rather than contested foreign land. The only comparable modern scenario—potential annexation of Greenland or Canadian territory—has generated diplomatic friction without advancing toward formal statehood. Venezuela's current political instability and disputed governance complicate any hypothetical negotiation, as the US would require clarity on which authority could legitimately cede territory. The constitutional amendment process required for a new state adds procedural complexity beyond executive agreement.
Near-term catalysts centre on US diplomatic initiatives and Venezuelan political developments. The Trump administration's second term (beginning January 2025) has previously discussed unconventional territorial acquisitions, though such rhetoric has not translated into formal annexation proposals. Traders should monitor statements from the State Department, any direct US-Venezuela negotiations, and developments in Venezuela's internal political situation, particularly regarding regime stability and international recognition. The narrow settlement window and requirement for announced agreement—rather than completed integration—means resolution hinges on diplomatic announcements rather than ground-level implementation.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Venezuela become 51st state?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$156K in lifetime turnover and $44K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $17K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 5%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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