Trade: Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?

Market context

Masoud Pezeshkian became Iran's president in August 2024 following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. This market assesses whether Pezeshkian will be removed from, resign from, or otherwise cease to hold the presidency before the end of 2026. The 25% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects meaningful uncertainty around his tenure, though he currently holds the formal office and faces no imminent constitutional removal process.

Iranian presidential transitions have historically occurred through elections, deaths, or constitutional mechanisms rather than forced removals. Pezeshkian's predecessor Raisi died in office; before that, Hassan Rouhani completed two full terms. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, retains ultimate authority over executive functions, but direct presidential removal remains uncommon. The current probability suggests traders assess genuine but minority-weighted risk of extraordinary circumstances—health crises, major political upheaval, or constitutional intervention—rather than routine political change.

Key catalysts include Iran's domestic economic conditions, which have deteriorated significantly with inflation and currency pressures documented through 2024. Parliamentary elections scheduled for March 2025 could shift political dynamics affecting presidential stability. International developments, particularly escalation in regional tensions or sanctions regimes, may create domestic political pressure. Traders should monitor statements from Khamenei's office regarding presidential authority, health announcements, and any constitutional court proceedings. The settlement window extends through end-2026, capturing roughly two years of potential political volatility in Iran's constrained institutional environment.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$594K in lifetime turnover and $25K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.

Last 24 hours alone saw $87 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.

The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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