Trade: How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

Market context

The question centres on how many non-citizens the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency will remove during the 2026 fiscal year. ICE removed 271,484 individuals in FY 2024, establishing a recent baseline for comparison. The resolution will depend on official figures published in the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report, with a fallback to credible alternative sources if that document is not released by 28 February 2027.

Historical deportation figures provide essential context for interpreting the current 2% implied probability on Polymarket's order book. During the Trump administration's first term (2017–2021), annual removals averaged around 267,000–345,000, peaking at 345,882 in FY 2017. The Biden administration saw removals decline to around 200,000–272,000 annually. The FY 2024 figure of 271,484 sits within historical ranges but reflects policy shifts and resource constraints that have persisted across administrations. Current market pricing suggests traders assess substantial barriers to significantly elevated removal rates.

Key catalysts for this market include congressional appropriations for ICE operations, staffing levels, and enforcement policy directives issued by the incoming administration. Trump's stated intention to pursue aggressive deportation policies during his 2024 campaign has been widely reported, though translating campaign rhetoric into operational capacity involves budgetary, legal, and logistical constraints. Traders should monitor ICE budget allocations announced in early 2025, any executive orders affecting enforcement priorities, and quarterly enforcement statistics that may emerge throughout 2026. Court decisions on immigration enforcement authority could also materially affect removal capacity.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$103K in lifetime turnover and $101K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.

Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.

The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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