Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | 11% YES | 90% NO |
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has served as President of Türkiye since 2018 and previously as Prime Minister from 2003 to 2014. The market tests whether he will cease holding the presidency at any point before the end of 2026—whether through resignation, removal, death, or incapacity. The current order book on Polymarket implies an 11% probability of this outcome, reflecting trader assessment that Erdoğan's grip on power remains substantially secure over the next two years despite domestic and international pressures.
Türkiye's recent political history provides limited precedent for sudden presidential transitions. Erdoğan consolidated executive authority following the 2016 coup attempt and won re-election in May 2023 under the current presidential system, which grants him significant powers. No Turkish president has been forcibly removed through constitutional means since the 1980 military coup. The 11% probability reflects a baseline expectation of regime stability, with traders pricing in only modest risk from health crises, unforeseen constitutional challenges, or extraordinary political upheaval.
Traders monitoring this market should track Erdoğan's health disclosures, parliamentary dynamics following any future elections, and economic conditions affecting his political durability. The Turkish economy faced inflation pressures and currency volatility through 2024, though these have not yet triggered institutional challenges to his presidency. Any announcement of resignation or formal removal proceedings would trigger immediate market resolution. Constitutional amendments or shifts in military-civilian relations represent lower-probability catalysts that could alter the trajectory, though none are currently signalled in Turkish political discourse.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$349K in lifetime turnover and $47K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $981 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 10 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 11%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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