Games

Trade: La Union vs. Independiente de Oliva

100% YES 0% NO

Opened 24 April 2026 · Settles 4 May 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming LNB game, scheduled for April 26 at 8:00PM ET: If the La Union win, the market will resolve to "La Union". If the Independiente de Oliva win, the market will resolve to "Independiente de Oliva". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: —
Total Volume: $403
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $396

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Market outcomes

La Union vs. Independiente de Oliva

100% YES

0% NO

Market context

La Unión will face Independiente de Oliva in an LNB fixture on 26 April at 8:00PM ET, with the market currently reflecting 100% implied probability for a decisive outcome. The settlement window extends to 4 May 2026, allowing for potential postponements within that window. The binary structure resolves to either team's name upon completion, with a 50-50 split only if the match is cancelled without rescheduling.

The current 100% probability on Polymarket's order book indicates near-certainty that the game will proceed to a conclusion rather than face cancellation. This pricing reflects the LNB's established fixture scheduling and the low historical frequency of permanent cancellations in Argentine basketball. However, this extreme probability leaves minimal room for the tail risk of fixture abandonment, which typically emerges only through league-wide disruptions or venue unavailability rather than team-level factors.

Traders should monitor LNB announcements regarding venue availability and any weather or logistical issues affecting the Buenos Aires region in late April. Recent fixture data from the LNB shows consistent game completion rates, though postponements occasionally occur and reset the settlement window. The absence of any reported scheduling conflicts or team-related complications as of now supports the market's confidence in completion. Any official league communication about fixture changes would likely move the probability away from the current extreme, particularly if postponement becomes probable rather than cancellation.

Wikipedia Context

La Union
La Union, officially the Province of La Union, is a coastal province in the Philippines situated in the Ilocos Region on the island of Luzon. The province's capital, the City of San Fernando, is the most populous city in La Union and serves as the regional center of the Ilocos Region.
La Unión, Murcia
La Unión is situated in the Region of Murcia in the southeast of Spain. It has an area of 24.6 km², and had a population of 19,907 on 1 January 2018. It has an elevation of 86 m. Its average annual temperature is 17 °C. It has balmy winters. The sun shines 320 days per year. La Unión is situated in one of the sunniest areas in Europe; this kind of climate ma
La Union's 2nd congressional district
La Union's 2nd congressional district is one of the two congressional districts of the Philippines in the province of La Union. It has been represented in the House of Representatives of the Philippines since 1916 and earlier in the Philippine Assembly from 1907 to 1916. The district consists of the southern municipalities of Agoo, Aringay, Bagulin, Bauang,
La Union's 1st congressional district
La Union's 1st congressional district is one of the two congressional districts of the Philippines in the province of La Union. It has been represented in the House of Representatives of the Philippines since 1916 and earlier in the Philippine Assembly from 1907 to 1916. The district consists of the provincial capital city of San Fernando and adjacent munici

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.laliganacional.com.ar/laliga/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "La Union vs. Independiente de Oliva" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 100% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $100 if YES resolves true — a 0% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$403 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "La Union vs. Independiente de Oliva"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.laliganacional.com.ar/laliga/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "La Union vs. Independiente de Oliva"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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