Resolution criteria on PolyGram: WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on May 8?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $97 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $96 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $95 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $94 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $93 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $92 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $91 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $90 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
WTI crude oil's closing price on 8 May 2026 will be determined by global supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical developments, and macroeconomic conditions over the coming months. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extreme confidence in a particular price floor or insufficient liquidity at the specific strike level being tested. With settlement nearly two years away, the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty, though the absence of YES bids suggests traders are heavily skewed toward expecting prices below the threshold or see limited edge in taking the affirmative position at current odds.
Historical WTI volatility provides context: the crude benchmark has ranged from below $30 per barrel during demand shocks to above $120 during supply constraints. The 2020 pandemic collapse and subsequent recovery demonstrated how quickly sentiment can shift, whilst OPEC+ production decisions and US shale output have consistently influenced price trajectories. Comparable long-dated energy contracts typically show wider probability distributions earlier in their lifecycle, with conviction building as catalysts approach.
Key variables for May 2026 include OPEC+ production policy decisions scheduled through 2025–2026, US Federal Reserve monetary stance affecting dollar strength and real yields, and any geopolitical disruptions to supply corridors. Energy inventory data, refinery utilisation rates, and global GDP forecasts will shape trader positioning. Recent reporting from Bloomberg and Reuters on OPEC+ compliance rates and US strategic petroleum reserve movements provides baseline context for assessing supply tightness heading into the settlement window.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on May 8?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$91K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $74K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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