Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anduril's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑$150B | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| ↑$110B | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| ↑$95B | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| ↑$85B | 65% YES | 35% NO |
| ↓$75B | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| ↑$125B | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| ↑$100B | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| ↑$90B | 35% YES | 66% NO |
Anduril Industries, the defence technology firm founded by Palmer Luckey, is being valued through Nasdaq Private Market's daily pricing mechanism. The market is assessing whether the company's private valuation will reach a specified threshold at any point between now and 30 June 2026. Current order book activity on Polymarket reflects a 3% implied probability, suggesting traders assess a substantial valuation increase as unlikely within the 18-month window.
Private defence contractors have historically experienced volatile valuation trajectories tied to geopolitical events and defence spending cycles. Comparables like Palantir Technologies and Shield AI have seen significant revaluations following major contract wins or funding rounds, though the path from private to public markets introduces timing uncertainty. Anduril's previous funding round in 2023 valued the company at $8.7 billion; reaching materially higher valuations would require either a substantial new funding event or significant business developments that move NPM pricing.
Key catalysts include announcements of major defence contracts, particularly from the US Department of Defence or allied governments, which could trigger investor appetite and secondary market repricing. Anduril's autonomous systems and counter-drone technology remain focal points for Pentagon procurement. The company's trajectory also depends on broader defence spending appropriations and geopolitical tensions affecting military technology demand. NPM pricing updates only on trading days, creating potential gaps in valuation discovery that traders should account for when monitoring the settlement window through July 2026.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will Anduril's valuation hit 2026 by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$72K in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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