Trade: Walmart Q1 US comparable sales growth (without fuel)?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to Walmart's announced Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth (without fuel) for the first fiscal quarter of 2027, as reported in its official company earnings materials. For the purposes of this market, comparable sales growth excludes the impact of fuel sales, as reported by Walmart in its official earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $256
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| 3.7%–4.0% | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| 4.3%–4.6% | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| <3.7% | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 4.0%–4.3% | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| 4.6%+ | 47% YES | 53% NO |
Market context
Walmart will report its first-quarter fiscal 2027 comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) in May 2026, a metric closely watched by investors as a barometer of consumer spending health and the retailer's competitive positioning. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 47% probability that this figure will exceed the threshold being priced, reflecting genuine uncertainty about near-term retail momentum.
Walmart's comparable sales performance has historically ranged between 2–5% annually in recent years, with Q1 figures typically influenced by post-holiday consumer behaviour and seasonal patterns. The company reported 5.3% comparable sales growth (without fuel) in Q1 fiscal 2026, setting a high baseline for the upcoming period. Traders should consider that elevated comparables from the prior year make year-on-year growth more challenging, whilst persistent consumer spending on essentials has supported Walmart's performance relative to discretionary retailers.
Key catalysts include Walmart's earnings announcement scheduled for late May 2026, which will provide the official figure for settlement. Between now and then, traders should monitor broader retail sales data, consumer confidence indices, and any management commentary from Walmart's quarterly calls that might signal trading momentum. Recent economic data on inflation and employment will also inform expectations, as these directly affect the purchasing power of Walmart's core customer base. The settlement window closes on 21 May 2026, leaving minimal time for post-announcement trading adjustments.
Wikipedia Context
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WalmartWalmart Inc. is an American multinational retail corporation that operates a chain of hypermarkets, discount department stores, and grocery stores in the United States and 19 other countries. It is headquartered in Bentonville, Arkansas. The company was founded in 1962 by brothers Sam Walton and James "Bud" Walton in nearby Rogers, Arkansas. It also owns and
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Walmart Canada
Walmart Canada is a Canadian retail corporation, discount retailer and the Canadian subsidiary of the U.S.-based multinational retail conglomerate Walmart. Headquartered in Mississauga, Ontario and Edmonton, Alberta, it was founded on March 17, 1994, with the purchase of the Woolco Canada chain from the F. W. Woolworth Company.
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Walmart Arkansas Music PavilionThe Walmart Arkansas Music Pavilion is an outdoor amphitheater located in Rogers, Arkansas. The venue opened in June 2005 as a semi-permanent venue, becoming a permanent venue in 2014. Its capacity is 11,000 fans.
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Walmart SoundcheckWalmart Soundcheck was a series of musical performances and interviews released exclusively by Walmart, starting in 2006. Each recording consisted of a four-to-six-song set performed live, plus an interview, and was released as a digital album as well as played on televisions inside Walmart retail stores. The debut performances for the series were by rock ba
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Walmart Q1 US comparable sales growth (without fuel)?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $256 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Walmart Q1 US comparable sales growth (without fuel)?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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