Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Palantir’s total customer count (typically labeled "customer count") for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company’s official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to “No”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 960 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1040 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1080 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 980 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1020 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1060 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Palantir Technologies will report its Q1 2026 customer count in earnings materials expected in May 2026. The market currently reflects 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, indicating traders assess it highly likely the company will exceed the specified customer threshold. This consensus pricing suggests minimal uncertainty around whether Palantir clears this particular bar, though the exact threshold figure remains critical to interpretation.
Palantir has demonstrated consistent customer growth over recent years, expanding from government-focused contracts into commercial sectors. Historical earnings reports show the company regularly adds customers quarter-on-quarter, with particular acceleration in its commercial division. The 100% probability reading reflects this established trajectory rather than speculation; traders are pricing in continuation of demonstrated growth patterns. Comparable software and data analytics firms typically report customer counts as a standard metric, making this figure reliably available in official materials.
The key catalyst remains Palantir's Q1 2026 earnings release, scheduled for May 2026 according to typical reporting calendars. Traders should monitor any interim announcements regarding major customer wins or losses that could signal acceleration or deceleration from historical trends. Recent performance in the commercial segment, particularly following the company's 2024 commercial revenue growth, will inform whether the customer base expansion continues at expected rates. The settlement window closes 4 May 2026, giving traders a narrow window between any potential early guidance and final resolution.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Palantir # of customers above __ in Q1?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$8K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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