Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Google's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Google" if Google's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31? | 14% YES | 86% NO |
The question hinges on whether OpenAI and Anthropic's combined private valuations will exceed Google's public market capitalisation by year-end 2026. OpenAI was last valued at $157 billion in October 2024, whilst Anthropic reached $60 billion in September 2024, totalling roughly $217 billion. Google's market cap currently sits around $2 trillion, meaning the combined AI firms would need to more than quadruple in valuation whilst Google remains flat or declines substantially. The 14% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the structural difficulty of this scenario, with traders pricing in the substantial gap between current combined valuations and Google's established market position.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance. No private technology companies have collectively surpassed an incumbent tech giant's public valuation within a two-year window, particularly one as capitalised as Google. The dotcom era saw rapid revaluations, but those occurred across different market conditions and without comparable baseline gaps. The current probability distribution suggests traders view a Google decline below $500 billion or extraordinary funding rounds for both firms as necessary conditions—both low-probability events individually.
Key catalysts include funding announcements for either firm, quarterly earnings reports affecting Google's valuation, and any material shifts in enterprise AI adoption rates. OpenAI's expected funding rounds and Anthropic's capital requirements will be closely watched. Google's earnings, particularly cloud division performance, directly influence the denominator. The settlement window closes 1 January 2027, requiring verified private valuations and Google's closing market cap on 31 December 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$328 in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 14%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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