Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve based on Odyssey Therapeutics' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 8 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before July 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <$0.8B | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $0.8B–$1.1B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $1.1B–$1.4B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $1.4B+ | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| No IPO before July 2026 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Odyssey Therapeutics is scheduled to price its initial public offering on 8 May 2026, with first-day trading commencing thereafter. The market will resolve based on the company's market capitalisation at the closing price on that debut trading day, calculated by multiplying outstanding shares by the official closing share price. If the IPO does not occur by 30 June 2026, the market resolves to "No IPO before July 2026".
The 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects confidence in the IPO proceeding as scheduled, though biotech IPO outcomes remain contingent on market conditions and regulatory clearance. Historical precedent shows that scheduled biotech IPOs occasionally face delays or cancellations due to market volatility, underwriter reassessment, or regulatory developments. Comparable recent biotech IPOs have typically opened with market caps ranging from $500 million to $2 billion depending on share count, pricing, and sector sentiment at the time of listing.
Traders should monitor Odyssey's regulatory filings with the SEC, particularly any amendments to the S-1 registration statement or pricing amendments filed closer to the May date. Market conditions in April and early May 2026 will materially influence whether underwriters proceed with pricing and at what valuation. Broader biotech sector performance, interest rate expectations, and any clinical trial announcements from Odyssey or competitors will shape investor appetite. The company's therapeutic focus and pipeline strength relative to peer valuations at the time of listing will determine whether opening-day trading reflects the underwriter's pricing or diverges significantly.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Odyssey Therapeutics IPO Closing Market Cap" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$24K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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