Trade: Innio IPO Closing Market Cap
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve based on Innio's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled for June 4 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $28K
- Total Volume
- $13K
- 24h Volume
- $2K
- Open Interest
- $4K
Market outcomes
| $20B–$23B | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| $23B–$26B | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| $29B+ | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| <$17B | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| $17B–$20B | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| $26B–$29B | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| No IPO before August 2026 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Market context
Innio, an Austrian-headquartered energy technology company specialising in gas engines and power generation systems, is scheduled to list on the New York Stock Exchange on 4 June 2026. The market is pricing the probability that the company's market capitalisation will exceed $3 billion at the closing price on its first trading day. Currently, the order book on Polymarket reflects a 24% implied probability for this outcome, suggesting traders assess a relatively low likelihood of Innio achieving a valuation in that range upon debut.
Recent comparable IPOs in the industrial and energy sectors provide context for evaluating this probability. Companies like Plug Power and Bloom Energy both entered public markets with valuations below $3 billion, though subsequent trading volatility was substantial. Innio's positioning in distributed energy and decarbonisation aligns with sector tailwinds, yet industrial equipment manufacturers typically price conservatively at IPO relative to growth narratives. The 24% probability reflects scepticism about a premium valuation at open, consistent with how similar infrastructure-focused businesses have been received by institutional investors.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding the IPO's pricing range, expected within days of the June listing date, as this directly constrains opening valuations. Macroeconomic conditions, energy market sentiment, and any updates on Innio's customer pipeline or order book could shift institutional demand. The settlement window closes 4 June 2026 at 16:00 ET, making this a near-term event with limited time for material developments to alter the trajectory.
Wikipedia Context
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Innopolis Special Economic ZoneSEZ “Innopolis” is a high tech innovation hub located in the city of Innopolis in the Republic of Tatarstan. The Innopolis zone also bears the designation of a special economic zone (SEZ). On November 1, 2012 the Government of the Russian Federation issued a decree creating special territories to attract investment and develop the IT-industry in the region.
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Innopolis UniversityInnopolis University is a private university located in the city of Innopolis, Tatarstan, Russia. The university was established on 10 December 2012 and specializes in information technology and robotics, as well as the development of information technology both internationally and in Russia.
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InnopolisInnopolis is an urban settlement in Verkhneuslonsky District of the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, a satellite of Kazan, the capital of the republic.
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InnopoliInnopoli is a large office building in the district of Otaniemi, Espoo, Finland, near the main campus of the Aalto University, constructed in 1991. Innopoli provides housing for many information technology companies, and some well-known, successful companies such as SSH Communications have started there. A newer office building, called Innopoli 2, was constr
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Innio IPO Closing Market Cap" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$13K in lifetime turnover and $28K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Innio IPO Closing Market Cap"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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