Trade: Chirayu Rana divorced?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Chirayu Rana and/or his spouse announce their intention to divorce by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the specified date of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market. The resolution source will be statements from Chirayu Rana and/or his spouse, and their representatives; however, a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may also be considered.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $14K
- Total Volume
- $55K
- 24h Volume
- $374
- Open Interest
- $13K
Market outcomes
| Chirayu Rana divorced? | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Market context
The market concerns whether Chirayu Rana, a finance sector figure, will announce an intention to divorce from his spouse by 30 June 2026. The resolution criterion requires only a public announcement of intent—the actual completion of divorce proceedings is immaterial to the outcome. Current order book activity on Polymarket prices this event at 4% probability, reflecting trader assessment that such an announcement remains unlikely within the specified eighteen-month window.
Comparable markets tracking personal life events for public figures typically price divorce announcements at low single-digit percentages absent specific triggering information. The baseline probability reflects both the general stability of marriages and the limited visibility traders possess into private circumstances. Markets of this type have historically resolved "No" with frequency, though unexpected announcements do occur and can move prices sharply when new information surfaces.
Traders monitoring this market should track any public statements from Rana or his representatives regarding personal matters, business transitions that might correlate with relationship strain, or reporting from financial media outlets covering his professional activities. Scheduled earnings calls, regulatory filings, or leadership changes at his organisation could serve as indirect signals. The eighteen-month settlement window extends through mid-2026, providing a defined period for catalysts to emerge, though the current pricing suggests the market assigns minimal probability to such an announcement materialising.
Wikipedia Context
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Chirayu NavawongsMom Luang Chirayu Navawongs was a Thai scholar and privy councillor. He was a professor at Chulalongkorn University, mainly teaching Pali and Sanskrit, and later served as Dean of the Faculty of Arts. He also served as Deputy Minister of Education, and was a fellow of the Royal Society. He was appointed to the Privy Council of King Bhumibol Adulyadej in 1975
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Chirayu Rana divorced?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 4% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $2500 if YES resolves true — a 2400% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$55K in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $374 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Chirayu Rana divorced?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 4%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Chirayu Rana divorced?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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