Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Cut–Pause–Pause | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Cut–Cut–Pause | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Pause–Pause–Pause | 77% YES | 23% NO |
| Pause–Cut–Pause | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| Other | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| Cut–Pause–Cut | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Cut–Cut–Cut | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Pause–Pause–Cut | 23% YES | 78% NO |
Over the next three months, the Federal Reserve will hold three scheduled FOMC meetings—in mid-June, late July, and mid-September—where it will decide whether to adjust the federal funds rate target. The market is pricing an 8% probability that at least one rate cut will occur across these three meetings, with the current order book on Polymarket reflecting minimal conviction that the Fed will lower rates during this window. This implies traders are heavily weighted towards either maintaining the current rate or potentially hiking further.
The Fed's recent trajectory provides crucial context. Following aggressive rate increases through 2022 and 2023, the central bank has held rates steady since July 2023, keeping the upper bound at 5.50%. Historical precedent suggests the Fed moves cautiously when inflation remains above target, and the current 8% probability reflects scepticism that economic data will deteriorate sufficiently by September to justify cuts. Comparable periods of rate-hold cycles typically last 12-18 months before policy shifts, and we are currently within that holding phase.
Traders should monitor May and June inflation releases, employment data, and Fed communications closely. The May Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures reports will arrive before the June meeting, potentially signalling whether disinflation is progressing. Additionally, any unexpected weakness in labour market data or financial stability concerns could accelerate rate-cut expectations. The Fed's own forward guidance and economic projections, updated at the June meeting, will be critical signals for market repricing ahead of the July and September decisions.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $71K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for fed rates contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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