Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Sentio's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Sentio (https://x.com/sentioxyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $50M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $200M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $500M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $20M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $100M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $300M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Sentio, a governance token project, is scheduled to launch with public transferability and trading capability. The market will resolve affirmatively if the token's fully diluted valuation—calculated by multiplying total token supply by the price on major exchanges—exceeds a specified threshold within 24 hours of launch. The resolution window closes on 1 January 2028, with the price snapshot taken at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launch.
Token launches typically experience significant price volatility in their opening hours, with FDV often spiking above initial valuations as early buyers establish positions and market makers set spreads. Historical precedent from governance token launches shows that projects with established communities and clear utility propositions frequently exceed conservative FDV thresholds within the first day. The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either a very modest threshold specification or substantial pre-launch momentum and community commitment. Traders should examine the specific FDV figure in the market title, as this determines whether the threshold represents a realistic or optimistic outcome relative to comparable launches.
Key catalysts include Sentio's official launch announcement, confirmation of exchange listings, and any major partnerships or integrations disclosed immediately before or after token availability. The project's social media channels and official communications will signal timing and technical readiness. Market participants should monitor whether the token achieves sufficient liquidity across multiple venues to establish reliable price discovery, as thin order books could distort FDV calculations and create settlement ambiguity.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Sentio FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$543K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for fdv contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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