Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the Nordic country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places highest. For the purposes of this market, the Nordic countries are Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Finland, and Sweden. If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Iceland | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Denmark | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| Finland | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Sweden | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| Norway | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Eurovision 2026 will take place in May, with participating nations competing across semi-finals and a grand final to determine Europe's most popular song. The Nordic countries—Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Finland, and Sweden—will each field a representative, and this market resolves to whichever achieves the highest placement in the official rankings. The current 0% implied probability reflects the order book's assessment at this snapshot; as candidate announcements and song selections materialise over the coming months, liquidity and pricing will adjust accordingly.
Nordic performance at Eurovision has historically been volatile. Sweden has won the contest twice in recent decades (2012, 2015) and regularly reaches finals, whilst Finland achieved a breakthrough victory in 2023 with a rock entry. Denmark and Norway have shown inconsistent results, with occasional semi-final eliminations. Iceland has competed reliably but rarely placed in top positions. This variance suggests no Nordic nation holds a structural advantage; outcomes depend heavily on song quality, staging, and jury/televoting dynamics in any given year.
Key catalysts include artist announcements (typically autumn 2025 through early 2026), song releases, and national selection processes. The EBU's official Eurovision website will publish the competition schedule and participant details as the event approaches. Traders should monitor which Nordic nations secure strong songwriting talent and whether any country's entry gains early momentum through social media or industry commentary. The settlement window closes 16 May 2026, with final resolution dependent on official EBU rankings from the grand final.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Eurovision 2026: Best Nordic Country" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$52K in lifetime turnover and $26K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for eurovision contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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