Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 2,255 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,345 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,360 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,375 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,285 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,270 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,300 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,315 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market settles based on Ethereum's closing price on the ETH/USDT pair at Binance during the one-hour candle ending 4PM ET on 9 May 2026. The 100% implied probability reflects a threshold price that sits substantially below current spot levels, making the outcome highly probable under normal market conditions. With nearly two years until settlement, the market is pricing in minimal tail risk of a severe price collapse that would breach the specified level.
Historical precedent suggests that Ethereum rarely sustains multi-year downtrends that would threaten such a threshold. During the 2022 bear market, ETH fell to approximately $880 before recovering; even in extreme scenarios like the 2018 crash, the asset recovered within subsequent cycles. The current order book on Polymarket shows negligible liquidity on the "No" side, indicating traders see little practical scenario where Ethereum trades below the specified price at that specific timestamp. This consensus is being formed with substantial time premium built in, as two-year price predictions typically carry wider uncertainty bands.
Catalysts between now and settlement include major Ethereum protocol upgrades, shifts in institutional adoption, macroeconomic conditions affecting risk assets, and regulatory developments across major jurisdictions. The cryptocurrency market remains sensitive to broader equity market movements and Federal Reserve policy signals. Traders should monitor announcements regarding Ethereum's scaling solutions, staking dynamics, and any material changes to the competitive landscape with alternative layer-one blockchains, though such developments would need to be severe to push spot prices below the threshold specified in this market's terms.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum above ___ on May 9, 4PM ET?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$205 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ethereum contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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