Trade: LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between Top Esports and Bilibili Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for May 15 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win the match against Bilibili Gaming. This market will resolve to "Bilibili Gaming" if Bilibili Gaming win the match against Top Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $13K
- Total Volume
- $2K
- 24h Volume
- $294
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 33% YES | 67% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
Top Esports and Bilibili Gaming are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three League of Legends match within the LPL Group Ascend tournament on 15 May at 7:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices Top Esports' victory at 33%, implying Bilibili Gaming as the 67% favourite. This probability spread reflects the relative strength assessments of both rosters heading into the fixture, with the market currently favouring the underdog narrative around Bilibili's recent form or matchup dynamics.
Top Esports has historically been one of China's premier organisations, though recent LPL seasons have seen competitive parity increase substantially. Bilibili Gaming's ascent as a title contender has narrowed the gap between traditional powerhouses and rising challengers. Comparable BO3 fixtures between similarly-ranked LPL teams typically settle within a 40–60 probability range when one team holds a marginal edge; a 33–67 split suggests the market perceives a material skill or preparation advantage for Bilibili.
Traders should monitor roster announcements, scrim results leaking into community channels, and any schedule changes closer to the 15 May date. LPL matches occasionally face delays due to technical issues or unforeseen circumstances; the settlement terms specify that delays exceeding seven days without a determined winner trigger a 50–50 resolution. Recent patch notes affecting champion viability and bans could also shift team preparation priorities in the days preceding the match, potentially moving the implied probability if either team's draft pool is materially affected.
Wikipedia Context
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Lol TolhurstLaurence Andrew Tolhurst is an English musician, songwriter, producer, and author. He was a founder member of the Cure, for which he first played drums before switching to keyboards. He left the Cure in 1989, and later formed the bands Presence and Levinhurst. He has also published two books and developed the Curious Creatures podcast. His most recent studio
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Tove LoEbba Tove Elsa Nilsson, known professionally as Tove Lo, is a Swedish singer-songwriter. She is known for her raw, grunge-influenced take on pop music. Referring to her autobiographical lyrics, Out called Lo "the saddest girl in Sweden", while Rolling Stone called her "Sweden's darkest pop export".
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LollipopA lollipop is a type of sugar candy usually consisting of hard candy mounted on a stick and intended for sucking or licking. Different informal terms are used in different places, including lolly and sucker. Lollipops are available in many flavors and shapes.
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Lol CoxhillGeorge Lowen Coxhill known professionally as Lol Coxhill, was an English free improvising saxophonist. He played soprano and sopranino saxophone.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/lplenglish. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$2K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $294 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/lplenglish. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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