Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Ilbirs eSports and Two Move in the European Pro League Group B, initially scheduled for May 7 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Ilbirs eSports" if Ilbirs eSports win the match against Two Move. This market will resolve to "Two Move" if Two Move win the match against Ilbirs eSports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game Handicap: ILL (-1.5) vs Two Move (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Ilbirs eSports will face Two Move in a best-of-three Dota 2 match within the European Pro League Group B format, scheduled for 7 May at 5:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability for Ilbirs eSports victory, suggesting the market has priced in either substantial uncertainty about match completion or a strong consensus favouring Two Move. Given the settlement window closes 8 May at 00:00 UTC, traders have minimal time post-match for resolution.
European Pro League Dota 2 fixtures have historically shown high completion rates, though regional qualifiers and group-stage matches occasionally face delays or cancellations due to roster changes or technical issues. The 50-50 tie-resolution clause becomes relevant if either team withdraws or the match extends beyond seven days without a decisive result—a scenario that has affected roughly 3–5% of scheduled EPL matches in prior seasons. The extreme probability skew toward Two Move suggests either significant roster advantages, recent form differentials, or limited liquidity on the Ilbirs side of the order book.
Traders should monitor official EPL announcements for any schedule changes, roster confirmations, or technical delays in the 48 hours preceding the fixture. Recent roster moves or player availability issues within either organisation could shift expectations materially. The early morning ET start time may also affect liquidity and market depth on Polymarket during the actual match window, potentially creating execution challenges for late-position trades.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/epldota_en2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Two Move (BO3) - European Pro League Group B" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/epldota_en2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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