Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 match between GLYPH and Carstensz in the EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 7 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "GLYPH" if GLYPH win the match against Carstensz. This market will resolve to "Carstensz" if Carstensz win the match against GLYPH. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game Handicap: GLYPH (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% YES | 100% NO |
GLYPH and Carstensz are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three Dota 2 match on 7 May 2026 at 02:00 ET as part of the EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for GLYPH, suggesting traders have priced in an overwhelming expectation of victory for the team. This extreme probability typically emerges when one side demonstrates substantially superior recent form, roster stability, or head-to-head record against the opponent.
Southeast Asian Dota 2 competitive outcomes have historically shown volatility despite apparent skill gaps, particularly in group-stage matches where preparation levels and meta familiarity vary considerably between teams. Previous EPL tournaments have seen upsets when lower-seeded teams exploit specific draft advantages or execute unconventional strategies. A 100% probability on Polymarket is rare in esports and typically reflects either a significant roster disadvantage for Carstensz, recent public statements about withdrawal, or an absence of meaningful trading activity pushing the line toward equilibrium.
Traders should monitor official EPL communications for any roster changes, player illness, or schedule adjustments through to the settlement window closure on 7 May at 12:10 UTC. Carstensz's recent tournament appearances and scrim results against comparable opposition would provide calibration for whether the current pricing reflects genuine capability gaps or market illiquidity. Any announcement of stand-in players or technical issues affecting either team could shift the order book substantially from its current extreme position.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMJmp7QXHrg. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$16K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMJmp7QXHrg. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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