Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 match between ALIS VENTORUS and Rune Eaters in the European Pro League Group A, initially scheduled for May 2 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "ALIS VENTORUS" if ALIS VENTORUS win the match against Rune Eaters. This market will resolve to "Rune Eaters" if Rune Eaters win the match against ALIS VENTORUS. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Game Handicap: RE (-1.5) vs ALIS VENTORUS (+1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% YES | 50% NO |
ALIS VENTORUS and Rune Eaters are scheduled to contest a best-of-three Dota 2 match within the European Pro League Group A format on 2 May at 08:00 ET. The settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC the same day, allowing approximately eleven hours for the match to conclude. Polymarket's order book currently reflects a 50-50 implied probability, suggesting traders perceive material uncertainty between both squads. The match outcome determines advancement positioning within the group stage, making it consequential for playoff seeding.
European Dota 2 competition has historically produced volatile results when mid-tier organisations face off, particularly in group stages where preparation depth and roster stability vary considerably. Teams classified at similar competitive tiers—neither dominant nor clearly inferior—typically settle near even odds. The 50-50 split here aligns with precedent for matches between squads without pronounced recent form differentials or head-to-head records strongly favouring one side.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any schedule amendments through official EPL channels in the days preceding the fixture. Recent fixture delays in regional Dota 2 leagues have occasionally extended beyond the standard window, triggering resolution mechanics. Patch changes deployed by Valve between now and match day could alter hero viability and team preparation trajectories. Injury or stand-in announcements from either organisation would shift the probability distribution materially, though such disclosures typically emerge within 48 hours of match time.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/epldota_en2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: ALIS VENTORUS vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - European Pro League Group A" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/epldota_en2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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