Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between SemperFi Esports and Kaleido Gaming in the Asian Champions League Group B, initially scheduled for May 12 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "SemperFi Esports" if SemperFi Esports win the match against Kaleido Gaming. This market will resolve to "Kaleido Gaming" if Kaleido Gaming win the match against SemperFi Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 63% YES | 37% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Map Handicap: SFE (-1.5) vs Kaleido Gaming (+1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 55% YES | 46% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 26% YES | 74% NO |
SemperFi Esports face Kaleido Gaming in an upper bracket semifinal of the Asian Champions League Group B Counter-Strike competition, scheduled for 12 May 2026 at 01:00 ET. The best-of-three format means the first team to win two maps advances. The current Polymarket order book reflects a 60% implied probability favouring SemperFi, suggesting market participants assess them as the stronger outfit heading into this fixture.
Contextualising this probability requires examining recent Asian Counter-Strike performance hierarchies. SemperFi has established themselves as a consistent regional force, whilst Kaleido Gaming's trajectory and current roster composition determine whether they represent genuine competitive parity or a significant step down. Historical upper bracket semifinals in regional tournaments typically favour teams with stronger recent LAN results and stable five-player lineups. Teams entering such matches with recent roster changes or extended breaks from competition have shown vulnerability, even when seeding suggests otherwise.
Traders should monitor several catalysts before settlement. Official tournament announcements regarding any schedule adjustments or venue changes remain critical, given the 7-day delay threshold for 50-50 resolution. Player availability updates—particularly confirmations of all ten players' participation—can shift match dynamics substantially. Recent performance data from qualifying rounds and any head-to-head records between these squads will inform whether the current 60-40 split accurately reflects underlying competitive strength or reflects incomplete information in the market.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/cispapa. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Kaleido Gaming (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group B" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$16 in lifetime turnover and $719 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $16 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/cispapa. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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