Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between Hermine Esports Club and HAVENs in the Exort Series Contenders Stage, initially scheduled for May 3 at 2:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Hermine Esports Club" if Hermine Esports Club win the match against HAVENs. This market will resolve to "HAVENs" if HAVENs win the match against Hermine Esports Club. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map Handicap: HEC (-1.5) vs HAVENs (+1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Hermine Esports Club face HAVENs in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match during Round 4 of the Exort Series Contenders Stage, scheduled for 3 May at 14:30 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50-50 split, indicating substantial uncertainty amongst traders regarding which roster will secure the series victory. This even pricing suggests neither team commands a clear competitive advantage in the eyes of the market, despite whatever recent form or roster changes may distinguish them.
The Exort Series Contenders Stage serves as a secondary competitive pathway within the Counter-Strike ecosystem, typically attracting emerging organisations and rosters rebuilding after roster transitions. Historical precedent from similar tier-two competitions shows that matches at this level often hinge on team cohesion and recent scrim performance rather than individual player skill alone. Teams with established core lineups tend to outperform those mid-transition, though upsets remain common when preparation gaps widen between opponents.
Traders should monitor team announcements regarding player availability or last-minute roster changes in the days preceding 3 May, as these frequently alter match dynamics in tier-two competition. The settlement window closes at 00:40 UTC on 4 May, providing approximately 22 hours post-scheduled start time for match completion. Any delay extending beyond 7 days from the original date triggers a 50-50 resolution, so fixture rescheduling announcements from the Exort Series organisers warrant close attention. Recent esports scheduling disruptions have occasionally forced postponements in secondary competitions when primary events demand venue or broadcast resources.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/exort_en2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Hermine Esports Club vs HAVENs (BO3) - Exort Series Contenders Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/exort_en2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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