Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between Eternal Fire Academy and Infinite in the Exort Series Main Stage, initially scheduled for May 12 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Eternal Fire Academy" if Eternal Fire Academy win the match against Infinite. This market will resolve to "Infinite" if Infinite win the match against Eternal Fire Academy. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map Handicap: INF (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire Academy (+1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Eternal Fire Academy face Infinite in a Counter-Strike best-of-three match scheduled for 12 May 2026 at 11:30 AM ET as part of the Exort Series Main Stage. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50-50 split, indicating traders perceive material uncertainty between the two rosters. This even probability suggests neither team carries a clear advantage in pre-match assessment, though the depth of liquidity and recent trading activity will determine how efficiently the market prices new information as the match approaches.
Academy-level Counter-Strike rosters typically exhibit higher volatility in competitive outcomes compared to established professional teams, making historical precedent less predictive. Matches involving developmental squads often hinge on individual player performance and tactical preparation rather than institutional consistency. The 50-50 implied probability reflects this structural uncertainty—traders lack sufficient historical data or established form to favour one side decisively.
Key catalysts include roster confirmations, recent scrim results, and any schedule adjustments closer to the settlement window. The Exort Series format and stage designation suggest this is a qualifying or secondary-tier competition, which may affect team preparation intensity. Traders should monitor official announcements from the tournament organiser regarding team lineups and any potential delays, given the seven-day cancellation threshold built into the market's resolution criteria. Recent esports scheduling disruptions have occasionally pushed matches beyond initial windows, making fixture confirmation a material variable.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/exort_en2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs Infinite (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $299 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/exort_en2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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