Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between BASEMENT BOYS and 100 Thieves in the Parken Challenger Championship Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 10 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "BASEMENT BOYS" if BASEMENT BOYS win the match against 100 Thieves. This market will resolve to "100 Thieves" if 100 Thieves win the match against BASEMENT BOYS. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
BASEMENT BOYS and 100 Thieves are scheduled to contest the upper bracket semifinal of the Parken Challenger Championship Playoffs in Counter-Strike on 10 May at 10:00 AM ET. The match is a best-of-three format. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for match completion, suggesting traders are pricing near-certain confidence that the fixture will proceed as scheduled and produce a decisive result by the settlement window closure on 10 May at 20:00 UTC.
The 100% probability reading is unusual for esports matches and warrants scrutiny against historical precedent. Tier-two Counter-Strike tournaments have experienced fixture delays, venue complications, and cancellations at rates between 2–5% across major regional competitions. The Parken venue in Copenhagen has hosted large esports events with generally reliable infrastructure, though unforeseen technical or logistical issues remain possible. Comparable upper bracket semifinals in recent CS tournaments have settled without incident in roughly 97–98% of cases, suggesting the current pricing may be overweighting certainty.
Traders should monitor official tournament communications from ESL or the event organisers regarding player roster confirmations, visa clearances, and any scheduling adjustments in the week prior to the match. Internet connectivity issues, equipment failures, or player availability changes have occasionally forced rescheduling in regional tournaments. The seven-day grace period before resolution triggers a 50-50 outcome provides material protection against minor delays, but the tight settlement window on match day itself creates execution risk if technical problems extend beyond the 20:00 UTC deadline.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/challengerchampionship. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Parken Challenger Championship Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$438 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $77 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/challengerchampionship. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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