Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Arch and JUMBO TEAM in the ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 1 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Arch" if Arch win the match against JUMBO TEAM. This market will resolve to "JUMBO TEAM" if JUMBO TEAM win the match against Arch. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Arch face JUMBO TEAM in a best-of-one Counter-Strike match within the ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season on 1 May at 11:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Arch, indicating the market has priced them as near-certain victors. This extreme skew typically emerges when one team holds a substantial competitive advantage or when liquidity remains thin, allowing even modest backing to push odds to the extremes.
ESEA Advanced Europe serves as a secondary-tier competitive circuit where roster stability and recent form diverge significantly from top-tier play. Historical precedent suggests that 100% probabilities in esports prediction markets often compress substantially closer to match time, particularly in lower-tier leagues where upsets occur more frequently than headline odds suggest. Teams operating at this level experience greater variance in performance, and single-map formats amplify the role of map selection, side advantage, and day-to-day consistency.
Traders should monitor team roster announcements and any schedule changes up to the settlement window closing on 1 May at 21:15 UTC. Recent ESEA fixture delays have occasionally extended beyond the seven-day threshold, which would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Confirmation of both teams' participation and any last-minute stand-in announcements will prove material, as will official map selection if disclosed beforehand. The current extreme pricing leaves minimal margin for error; even modest new information regarding team availability or recent scrim results could shift the order book substantially.
The Counter-Strike match-fixing scandal was a 2014 match fixing scandal in the North American professional scene of Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO). It involved a match between two teams, iBUYPOWER and NetCodeGuides.com, where questionable and unsportsmanlike performance from the team iBUYPOWER, then considered the best North American team, drew su
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/michass00. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Arch vs JUMBO TEAM (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/michass00. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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