Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | 7% YES | 93% NO |
The question centres on whether the United States will acquire sovereignty over Greenland, the autonomous Danish territory in the North Atlantic, by the end of 2026. Such a transfer would require formal agreement between the US and Denmark, with Greenland's status shifting from its current autonomous arrangement within the Kingdom of Denmark to direct US governance. The current Polymarket order book implies a 7% probability of this occurring within the settlement window.
Historical precedent suggests territorial acquisitions by the US are now exceptionally rare. The last significant territorial expansion occurred in 1959 with Alaska and Hawaii's statehood; prior to that, the US purchased Alaska from Russia in 1867 and acquired various territories through 19th-century expansion. Denmark has shown no indication of ceding Greenland, which holds strategic Arctic importance and maintains its own government in Nuuk. The Danish government has repeatedly stated Greenland is not for sale, though geopolitical interest in Arctic resources and shipping routes has intensified competition amongst major powers.
Catalysts to monitor include statements from the Trump administration regarding Arctic strategy, any formal diplomatic overtures from Washington to Copenhagen or Nuuk, and responses from the Danish and Greenlandic governments. Recent reporting in December 2024 indicated renewed US interest in Greenland's strategic position, though this remained rhetorical rather than translating into concrete acquisition proposals. The compressed timeframe—less than two years—substantially constrains the probability, as territorial transfers of this magnitude typically require extended diplomatic negotiation and legislative processes in both nations.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$33.0M in lifetime turnover and $151K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for denmark contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $24K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 7%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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