Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles based on whether Bitcoin's price according to Chainlink's BTC/USD data feed is higher or equal at 8:10AM ET on 8 May 2026 compared to 8:05AM ET that same morning. The five-minute window captures intraday volatility during US morning trading hours, when institutional and retail participation typically increases following overnight Asian session activity.
Five-minute Bitcoin price movements are predominantly driven by technical positioning and order flow rather than fundamental news, making such tight windows inherently difficult to predict directionally. Historical analysis of comparable ultra-short timeframe markets shows that crowd-implied probabilities near 0% often reflect genuine uncertainty rather than strong conviction—the market is essentially pricing a near-coin-flip outcome. When Polymarket's order book shows extreme skew towards one side on such granular timeframes, it typically indicates sparse liquidity and wide bid-ask spreads rather than high-confidence directional views.
Traders should monitor Chainlink's data feed status and any scheduled maintenance windows that could affect price reporting accuracy. Broader Bitcoin price action in the 24 hours preceding the settlement window matters less than immediate pre-8:05AM positioning; any significant news or economic data releases scheduled for that morning could create volatility spikes. The current 0% YES probability on Polymarket's book suggests minimal trading activity or strong backing of the DOWN position, though the five-minute resolution window typically attracts only specialist traders focused on microstructure rather than directional conviction.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$86K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $86K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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