Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market resolves based on whether Hyperliquid's price on the Chainlink HYPE/USD data stream rises or remains flat during a five-minute window on 10 May between 8:10pm and 8:15pm ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for an upward or neutral move, suggesting traders perceive minimal downside risk within this compressed timeframe. Such extreme probabilities on intraday price movements typically emerge when liquidity is thin or when the market structure itself constrains meaningful price discovery in short intervals.
Five-minute price windows rarely exhibit sustained downward pressure unless accompanied by sudden negative news or liquidation cascades. Historical precedent across crypto markets shows that ultra-short timeframes often resolve to "Up" simply due to bid-ask bounce dynamics and the difficulty of coordinating large sell orders within seconds. The Chainlink data feed introduces an additional layer of specificity, as its price aggregation methodology may differ marginally from spot exchanges, though such discrepancies are usually negligible over brief periods.
Traders monitoring this market should track any scheduled announcements regarding Hyperliquid's protocol or ecosystem between now and the settlement window, though the compressed timeframe limits exposure to most macro catalysts. Exchange maintenance windows or unusual volume spikes on major trading venues could theoretically trigger volatility, but the five-minute resolution window provides little opportunity for information to propagate and move prices substantially. The 100% probability reflects the mathematical reality that preventing any upward tick over five minutes requires either a coordinated sell-off or technical failure—outcomes with low baseline frequency in functioning markets.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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