Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Hyperliquid's price movement will be assessed over a five-minute window on 7 May at 9:45–9:50pm ET, with settlement determined by Chainlink's HYPE/USD data feed rather than spot market prices. The current orderbook on Polymarket reflects zero probability for an upward move, indicating traders are pricing in either a decline or flat performance during this specific interval. This extreme skew suggests either strong directional conviction downward or minimal liquidity at the YES side, which often characterises short-window price prediction markets where bid-ask spreads widen considerably.
Five-minute price windows in crypto typically resolve based on intraday volatility patterns and order flow rather than fundamental shifts. Historical precedent shows that such narrow timeframes frequently settle DOWN simply because sustained upward momentum within seconds requires specific catalyst alignment—typically major announcements, exchange listings, or liquidation cascades. Hyperliquid, a decentralised perpetuals exchange, experiences price movements driven by trading activity on its platform and broader crypto market sentiment, but five-minute intervals rarely capture sufficient momentum to guarantee directional moves.
Traders should monitor Hyperliquid's platform activity and any protocol updates scheduled near the settlement window, alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum price action, which typically influence altcoin movements. The Chainlink data feed's latency and update frequency will determine precise settlement pricing; any discrepancy between Chainlink's reported price and spot markets could create arbitrage opportunities. Given the 0% implied probability, any YES position carries substantial odds but requires conviction that upward pressure materialises within the exact five-minute bracket.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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