Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Carlos Ulberg is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Carlos Ulberg officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Paulo Costa | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Fighter A | — | |
| Fighter C | — | |
| Fighter I | — | |
| Fighter J | — | |
| Fighter O | — | |
| Fighter Q | — | |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 50% YES | 51% NO |
Carlos Ulberg, the New Zealand light heavyweight competing in the UFC, will next face an opponent to be officially announced by the promotion. The market resolves based solely on UFC's formal announcement of a scheduled bout, excluding speculation or unconfirmed reports. The 50% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty about Ulberg's next matchup, with the settlement window extending to May 2027 allowing considerable time for fight announcements within the UFC's typical scheduling patterns.
Ulberg's recent competitive history provides context for assessing the current probability. Following his knockout victory over Alonzo Menifield in September 2024, he positioned himself within the light heavyweight rankings. The 50% crowd probability suggests the market perceives meaningful uncertainty around whether a specific opponent will be confirmed before the deadline, balanced against the likelihood that the UFC will formally announce his next bout within the extended timeframe. Comparable markets for fighter matchups typically see probabilities shift sharply upon official UFC announcements, which carry contractual weight and scheduled dates.
Traders should monitor UFC Fight Night and pay-per-view event announcements, particularly those featuring light heavyweight contenders. The promotion typically schedules fights 6–12 weeks in advance, with official confirmations appearing through UFC.com and fighter social media channels. Recent injury reports or ranking changes among light heavyweight contenders could influence Ulberg's next opponent selection. The extended settlement window means the market remains sensitive to any UFC announcement matching Ulberg with a named opponent and confirmed date.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "UFC: Who will Carlos Ulberg fight next?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4 in lifetime turnover and $6 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for carlos ulberg contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 May 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: