Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BNB/USDT May 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BNB/USDT May 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down on May 2? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market tracks whether BNB/USDT will trade higher at noon ET on 2 May 2026 compared to its closing price at noon ET on 1 May 2026. The settlement hinges on two specific one-minute candle closes on Binance, with a 50-50 resolution if prices match exactly. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero implied probability for an upward move, suggesting traders are pricing in either a decline or flat performance over that 24-hour window. Such extreme probabilities in short-dated crypto markets typically reflect either strong directional conviction or thin liquidity in the order book itself.
Historical precedent for single-day BNB price action shows volatility clustering around major announcements from Binance or broader crypto market events. Over comparable 24-hour windows, BNB has exhibited moves of 2–5% in either direction during normal market conditions, though this varies substantially depending on Bitcoin's momentum and altcoin sentiment. The 0% probability currently displayed suggests the market is either heavily skewed toward downside or lacks sufficient order depth to establish a balanced two-sided market.
Traders monitoring this contract should track Binance platform announcements, regulatory developments affecting the exchange, and Bitcoin's price trajectory heading into May 2026, as BNB typically correlates with broader market sentiment. Quarterly earnings or token burn announcements from Binance could shift positioning materially. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC on 2 May, providing a fixed endpoint for resolution against Binance's recorded candle data.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down on May 2?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$238 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for bnb contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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