Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 78,800 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 79,200 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 79,600 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 80,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 80,400 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 81,200 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 81,600 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 82,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles based on Bitcoin's closing price on the BTC/USDT pair during the one-hour candle ending at 6AM ET on 10 May 2026, using Binance as the sole reference exchange. The specific price threshold remains unspecified in the provided details, though the settlement mechanism is straightforward: Binance's hourly close will determine whether the threshold is breached. The 100% implied probability currently reflected in Polymarket's order book suggests traders are pricing in near-certainty that Bitcoin will trade above the threshold at that specific moment.
Historical precedent shows that Bitcoin's hourly closes rarely exhibit extreme volatility within predictable windows, particularly when settlement occurs during established market hours. The 6AM ET timestamp falls within early US trading but after Asian market activity, typically a period of moderate liquidity. Comparable hourly resolution markets on Bitcoin have shown that crowd probabilities clustering at extremes—either near 0% or 100%—often reflect either a threshold set very close to current spot prices or a consensus view that the price direction is heavily favoured. The current 100% reading suggests the threshold may be positioned conservatively relative to expected price action.
Traders should monitor macroeconomic calendar events in the weeks preceding settlement, particularly US Federal Reserve communications and inflation data releases, which historically drive Bitcoin volatility. Regulatory announcements from major jurisdictions and institutional adoption news can shift sentiment sharply. The specific threshold value will ultimately determine whether this probability reflects genuine market conviction or a technical artefact of how the price level was set relative to current trading ranges.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin above ___ on May 10, 6AM ET?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for bitcoin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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