Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the name ranked #3 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Elon Musk | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 3% YES | 98% NO |
| Jeff Bezos | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| Warren Buffett | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Larry Page | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Person B | — | |
| Person D | — | |
The Bloomberg Billionaires Index will rank the world's wealthiest individuals on 31 December 2026. This market resolves to YES if the third-ranked person on that date holds the position, with the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List serving as a secondary source should Bloomberg data prove unavailable. The settlement window closes at 5:30 PM ET on that date, giving traders roughly two years to assess shifts in ultra-high-net-worth positioning across major asset classes.
Historically, the third position on billionaire rankings has shown moderate stability compared to lower ranks, though volatility increases during equity market downturns. The current 35% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects uncertainty around whether the incumbent third-ranked individual—currently Bernard Arnault's family interests or Elon Musk, depending on the specific ranking methodology—will retain that slot. Previous years have seen rank shifts driven by single-stock performance, with Tesla's valuation swings particularly influential for Musk's positioning and LVMH's performance affecting Arnault's standing.
Traders should monitor major corporate earnings announcements, particularly from technology and luxury goods sectors, alongside macroeconomic conditions affecting equity valuations. Significant M&A activity, IPOs, or founder share sales could trigger rapid repositioning. Recent volatility in tech stocks and luxury spending patterns will likely continue shaping wealth concentration through 2026. The Bloomberg and Forbes methodologies differ slightly in real-time wealth calculations, so discrepancies between sources during the resolution window warrant attention.
The High Peak Rifles, later 6th Battalion, Sherwood Foresters, was a volunteer unit of Britain's Territorial Army. First raised in the High Peak area of Derbyshire in 1860, it fought as infantry on the Western Front during the First World War and as an air defence unit during the Second World War. Its descendants remained in the Army Reserve until 2014.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "3rd richest person on December 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$23K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for big tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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